Coalition talks unlikely to terminate

Nasha Ukraina’s threat to walk out of coalition and SPU’s ultimatum regarding the post of Speaker are both tactical rather than conclusive maneuvers in the end-game of coalition talks—the division of the main posts, says ICPS political analyst Ivan Presnyakov. Coalition talks are unlikely to terminate because this would be extremely counterproductive to all three parties. Moreover, there is not enough time to negotiate a new configuration.

For the coalition to break down at this stage would deprive BYT leader Yulia Tymoshenko of her de facto premiership. From the strategic point of view, the speakership is not worth sacrificing the coalition, for either the Socialists or Nasha Ukraina. If they let negotiation for a coalition fall apart, all three parties will be labeled spoilers, risking both the loss voter support and internal collapse. This means that the current squabble is merely a continuation of horsetrading over positions. If the personal ambitions of various politicians look like leading to a definite collapse, BYT—as a party with the most to lose if there is no Orange coalition—will step in as the “peacemaker”.

Still, should the Orange partners not come to some conclusion or agree a legislative recess 14 June, the opposition will most likely take advantage of the situation to destabilize the political process. Party of the Regions could well try to establish a situational coalition with the Communists and disaffected members of, say, SPU and Nasha Ukraina, for the purpose of taking over the leadership of the Rada.

The likelihood that PR will establish a formal coalition with either the two leftist parties or with Nasha Ukraina is highly improbable. Even if individual members of Nasha Ukraina and SPU are talking to the Party of the Regions, this will not translate into the necessary votes in the Rada because they do not have the backing of their entire party. In order to succeed in negotiating an alternate coalition, the Party of the Regions would have to be able to get all the various factions of potential partner parties to the table. Given the constitutional deadline of 23 June, ICPS‘s Presnyakov says it will be virtually impossible to negotiate a common program and all the other aspects of an entirely new coalition.