The election of Oleksandr Moroz as Speaker may lead to the ruination of the coalition of democratic forces constituting BYT, Nasha Ukraina and the Socialist Party of Ukraine. Still, it does not provide a final answer to the question of who exactly will form the new coalition. The vote on the post of Speaker in the legislature, which took place 6 July, opened a new round of negotiations on the future coalition and made new political scenarios once again more possible, according to ICPS Director Viktor Chumak. Today there are three options: a new coalition involving Party of the Regions and Nasha Ukraina plus possibly SPU or PR–SPU–CPU, and the original BYT–NU–SPU coalition. The selection of a specific option will depend on the president’s position as to which combination is the best and most comfortable “fit” for the future coalition.

The combination PR–SPU–CPU may seem more natural given the choice of the Speaker, but it also contains serious risks. Above all, it is very unlikely that CPU will want to sign any full-range coalition agreement with the Party of the Regions. This step would once and for all discredit the party in the eyes of its already-dwindling electorate and would probably lead to its ultimate demise from the political arena in the next election—or its merger with Party of the Regions.

This version of a coalition would mean a complete divergence between the political course of the president and the Government. Given the gaps in the legislation that regulates relations between the Government and coalition and the Presidency, this will automatically mean institutional clashes between two branches of power in terms of authority, appointments and policy directions. In addition, such a coalition will be seen by both the president and Ukraine’s international partners as a major blow on the country’s European and Euroatlantic foreign policy goals. In this situation, the president’s reasons to dismiss the legislature grow considerable and should Nasha Ukraina and BYT support him in this, say, by blocking the work of the Verkhovna Rada, and a shift in the voter mood, this kind of option becomes quite realistic.

Most likely, in order to increase the relative stability of the coalition currently under discussion, PR will try to get new coalition talks going with Nasha Ukraina. This version of a coalition has some support within both Nasha Ukraina and in PR. Moreover, it allows Nasha Ukraina to participate in a ruling coalition as an alternative to the largely revanchist—in the eyes of Orange voters—majority in the

PR–SPU–CPU combination. Such arguments could persuade the one-time opponents of a broad coalition with Nasha Ukraina and preserve internal unity.

In this situation, it becomes a moot point whether Oleksandr Moroz or the SPU are really needed in such a coalition. They will be players in a broad coalition only if Nasha Ukraina breaks up and provides an insufficient number of seats to form a majority coalition. Moroz could then play the role of the political kamikaze: the break-up of the Orange coalition that his election as Speaker led to could end up bringing him no strategic benefits at all if a broader coalition ends up involving only NU and PR.

Beyond all this, as of now, the signatures on the coalition agreement among Nasha Ukraina, BYT and SPU have not been yet withdrawn. Other than emotional statements from NU and BYT, no other steps have been taken that might cross out the Orange coalition. This means that, for now, there remains a chance to preserve the existing coalition and to come up with some “compensation” for Nasha Ukraina in exchange for the Speaker’s seat, such as the chairs of key committees or portfolios in the Cabinet.

The fact that the president called for time-out on 6 July in order to assess events and the lack of an open tactical response by Nasha Ukraina seem to indicate that Viktor Yushchenko has not yet made up his mind about how the situation might unfold and is considering a variety of possible ways to form a coalition. And it is from his further positions and preferences that the fate of future coalition talks largely depends. The situation today has opened the door for him to new possibilities—forming a broad coalition—, but has not yet closed the door to old ones—an Orange coalition.