What should Ukraine’s foreign and security policy look like?

On 28 January, analysts presented the “Prospects for Ukraine’s foreign and security policy for the next 5 years” at a press conference. Based on an analysis of the platforms of both Presidential candidates, experts have predicted how the future Head of state will carry out national security policy and what direction the country’s foreign policy course will go in.

According to Leonid Poliakov, chair of the Expert Council at the Research Center for the Military, Conversion and Disarmament, Ukraine faces a number of political, economic, energy, military, demographic, and even border management threats today that the future President must respond to. Both candidates give these threats similar evaluations and rightly criticize the imbalance in the government and its chaos. The difference is that Yulia Tymoshenko blames the changes to the Constitution of Ukraine in 2004 as the main source of these threats, while Viktor Yanukovych simply blames the Orange government. In terms of future foreign policy, most candidates are likely to return to multi-vector policy, that is, to looking for a balance between West and East. The problem is not so much policy itself but whether it will bring positive results to Ukraine.

ICPS Director Olha Shumylo pointed out that neither candidate has serious strategic intentions regarding foreign policy, which means there are unlikely to be any breakthroughs in this area over the next five years.

“However, no matter who becomes President, relations with Russia will be more depoliticized. As to Eurointegration, Ukraine will no longer be able to feed Europe slogans about joining the EU. It’s high time the country took some real steps,” Ms. Shumylo said. “In the end, no matter who takes the post of Head of State, I believe that they will not look at the outside world for at least six months.”

This event was part of the New Citizen Community Campaign whose aim is to increase the impact of civil society on democratic processes in Ukraine (www.newcitizen.org.ua).